After a bit of a hiatus while on my travels, we are back with another position from the St. Albans chouette courtesy of Sean Clennell. Andrew Fotiadis is captain of a team of five, and has just rolled a 64:
All the team argued for running 21/11, leaving Black seven pips up on roll and with a big pile of cubes ominously to his left. Chouettes are not democracies, however, and Andrew held back for a shot, even though it would likely need a 7 to hit (Sean didn’t say if he played 12/2 or 12/6 5/1 – if you think there’s a worthwhile difference between them then do comment!). Who was right? Would a creative combination, stepping out to Black’s eight-point to pick up some direct shots, be any better? The floor is yours…
Well, it looks like a consensus among the commenters… and XG agrees with you.
I’m glad to see noone took the cowardly way out by running. It’s the easiest to analyse, Black is seven pips up and on roll in a straight race, and will win almost exactly 2/3 of the time with access to the cube. The major contender, staying right back, generates a 7-shot with Black 61, 62, 63, 64, 51, 52, 53, 54, 41, 42, 43, and 32, while turning 11 and 22 into hit-and-covers. Blue hits (and cashes) in 4 games, gets pointed on (and almost certainly passes) in 2, and the rest are a wash as the race goes on. Simples! Did you get all those possibilities? The key is that with many rolls, Black is better off making a break for home now rather than both wasting pips in a race that’s far from gin and increasing the likelihood of shots next time.
Stepping out with the 4 is actually not so bad – you create direct shots with Black 61 and 62, but he plays safe with rolls like 51 and simply runs past you with big numbers. Better than no shots though!
Factors would appear to be :-
FOR LEAVING BACK MAN ON 4, and moving 12/2
A) Blue has a full board, and a hit in the next couple of rolls is surely a win. Note some wastage if you play 12/2, but only 4 pips, Personally I would ignore that…
B) EXCEPT THAT a ten roll is such a nice “long jump” that won;t happen every rollday,
C) You have a beautifully symmetrical distribution compared to Black, and wastage is minimal imho.
FOR RUNNING 21/11
D) If you wait for a hit, then there’s almost the same chance of a backfire as a hit, i.e. a 1+1 or 2+2 by black are a mini-disaster (2 rolls = black win), black is still “safe” with any other double or a 65 (6 rolls, also probably a black win) ; also black is “relatively safe” (leaving just a compound 7 hit) with 65, 64, 63 62, 61, 54, 53, 52, 51 (18 rolls). For these 18 rolls you have 6 rolls that hit back with a 7, We are down to about 3 rolls prorata that hit here. Summary 8 black rolls where he wins, and 3 (prorata) where he loses.
D) the same symmetrical distribution in your board as referred to in B means that your bearoff will not have missing teeth (as black currently has on the 4 point) – hence 7 pips down (gross) is possibly not such a problem.
In summary, lol, I’d probably go with my first impulse, and opt to keep that backman there, but I bet the correct answer (by XG) is to run 🙂
12-2 because of open blot and 6 nr is half a regular shot and when he plays safe it causes wastage
Before I go look this up, I would definitely leave my piece on 4 and give my opponent the trouble of getting the 2 on 11 over unscathed. If I hit then that’s the end surely.