Backgammon sometimes seems like a giant jigsaw puzzle: there are multiple pieces of seemingly unrelated information but, very rarely, we find a way to join the pieces together and the big picture becomes clearer.
The First Piece…
Suppose you are four points behind in a long match. If you have to win four games at one point to equal the score, the chance of this happening is 1/16. If each game is worth two points you only need to win two games and your chance is one quarter. If each game is worth four points your chance is a half. This is to show what may be obvious to some – that the trailer wants each game to be worth more points.